The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts for 2008/09 project that global cotton consumption will exceed the season’s new supply of cotton for a second consecutive year. The expected 8-million-bale deficit would be the largest such shortfall since 1993/94.

Global cotton mill use is only projected to rise slightly in 2008/09, as world GDP growth slows through calendar 2009. However, new supplies (cotton production plus unaccounted cotton) are expected to decline 4.5 million bales to 117.9 million in 2008/09, widening the gap with consumption forecast at 125.9 million bales.

The global reduction in new supplies is due primarily to the United States, where over a 5-millionbale drop in production is foreseen in 2008/09.

In China, cotton consumption continues to exceed new supplies, with a gap of 15.5 million bales projected for 2008/09, compared with an estimated 14.2 million in 2007/08.